Samia Sarker Pinkey, Roksana Akter, Md. Bayazid Hossen, Shankar Majumder and Mosa. Lajina Begum
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55706/jae1847
Abstract
Salt is a strategic commodity in Bangladesh, contributing significantly to food security, industrial development, and coastal livelihoods. This study aims to analyze the long-term trend of salt demand and production in Bangladesh and to forecast future growth patterns. Secondary data covering the period 2000-2024 were collected from the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation, while relevant climatic information was obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Trend analysis was performed using linear, quadratic, cubic, and exponential growth models. Model performance was evaluated using R², AIC, MAE, and MAPE criteria. The findings reveal a consistent upward trend in both salt demand and production, with the cubic growth model providing the best fit. Based on this growth model, salt demand for 2024-2025 is forecasted at 27.56 million tons (CI: 25.69-29.42), rising steadily to 44.75 million tons by 2030-2031. Similarly, salt production is projected to grow from 25.16 million tons in 2024-2025 to 45.13 million tons by 2030-2031. The study provides empirical evidence to support strategic planning and sustainable development of the salt sector in Bangladesh.
Keywords: Salt production; Demand trend; Growth modeling; Forecasting; Bangladesh.
