Potentiality of Salt Production in Bangladesh: Impact of Climate Change Issues

Bangladesh’s coastal salt industry depends largely on solar evaporation and is therefore sensitive to rainfall, temperature, sunshine duration and other weather conditions. This study examines national salt production and demand trends, explores associations between salt output and selected meteorological variables, and identifies production constraints reported by salt farmers. Annual secondary data for 2000–2024 were obtained from the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (BSCIC) and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). In addition, primary information was collected from 22 salt producers in Cox’s Bazar Sadar Upazila, supported by one focus group discussion and two key-informant interviews. Linear, exponential, quadratic and cubic trend models were compared using forecast-error and information criteria. The cubic specification was selected in the source analysis for both production and demand. The reported 2030–2031-point forecasts were 45.13 for production and 44.75 for demand; however, the original table’s unit designation requires confirmation before these values can be interpreted. In the climate analysis, salt production was positively correlated with maximum temperature (r = 0.54) and negatively correlated with rainfall (r = −0.41) and sunshine hours (r = −0.69). A dynamic regression specification including lagged production, rainfall, sunshine hours, and maximum temperature explained 83% of the observed variation (adjusted R² = 0.79). The farmer survey indicated that 51% of respondents used leased or Khas land, 50% were illiterate, and 59% reported a lack of salt-production training. These findings suggest that weather variability interacts with production practices and structural constraints. The results should be interpreted cautiously because the farm-level sample is small, the national time series is short, and the reported sunshine-hour association requires further investigation. Strengthening climate information, training, access to suitable land and storage, and market support could improve the resilience of Bangladesh’s salt sector.

Keywords: Salt farmers; Sea-salt production; Climate change; Climate variability; Rainfall variation; Sunshine duration; Temperature; Time-series analysis.